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National Gazette No. 42829, 08 November 2019, Vol 653, Page 124

20191108 - National Gazette No 42829 of 08-November-2019, Volume 653, page 124

Page	124 of 280
Gazette	National Gazettes, No 42829, from 08 November, 2019
Department	ICASA
Notice	Page No. 60 of 209, Notice No. 600, Electronic Communications Act (36/2005), as amended » Notice regarding the Final International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) Roadmap 2019

124    No. 42829            GOVERNMENT GAZETTE, 8 NOVEMBER 2019

6 FORECASTS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Forecasts of overall IMT demand

In Report ITU-R M.2290-0 (12/2013) future spectrum requirements are estimated for terrestrial IMT.
                   From this report it is clear that the growth in mobile traffic is expected to increase over the next few
                   years.  In order to reflect the increasing traffic demand, new, updated market attributes for the lower
                   user density and higher user density settings are provided.

In  ‘Report ITU-R M.2078-0 (2006), Estimated spectrum bandwidth  requirements for  the future
                   development of IMT-2000  and  IMT-Advanced’,  the  new traffic volumes for the spectrum
                   requirement estimations in 2020 are derived by considering traffic growth ratios from the market
                   studies presented in ‘Report ITU-R M.2243-0 (2011) Assessment of the global mobile broadband
                   deployments and forecasts for International  Mobile  Telecommunications’.    The  report  relies  on
                   several mobile traffic forecasts beyond 2010, provided by different organisations. Most of these
                   forecasts consider mobile traffic in the years 2011-2015, while only one makes projections for the
                   year 2020, anticipating a 33-fold traffic growth ratio in 2020 compared with 2010.

It should be noted that the 2nd-order polynomial function estimates conservative traffic growth,
                   while the 3rd and 4th-order polynomial functions provide more aggressive growth corresponding to
                   approximately 40 to 170-fold and 80 to 240-fold growth ratios, respectively.

The spectrum requirements are distributed and calculated for Radio Access Technology Group 1
                   (RATG 1) (i.e. pre-IMT, IMT-2000 and its enhancements) and RATG 2 (i.e. IMT-Advanced) for the
                   year 2020.

Service category                             Other
                    Market-related parameters                      Radio-related parameters
                                                 parameters                                parameters
                    J-values for mapping of mobility   Maximum  Maximum  Guardband  Supported  Traffic
                     classes from market study to   allowable  allowable  between  mobility  distribution ratio
                          methodology         blocking  mean IP     operators   classes    among available
                                             probability  packet delay                       RATGs
                                Mean service                        Minimum    Application
                     User density  bit rate                        deployment   data rate   Population
                                              Mean IP   Second     per operator              coverage
                                             packet size  moment of  per radio  Area spectral  percentage
                    Mean session  Session arrival       IP packet  environment  efficiency
                      duration  rate per user            size
                                                                               Support for
                                                                   Number of    multicast
                    Mobility ratio                                 overlapping
                                                                    network
                                                                   deployments  Cell size

Figure 8: Input parameter overview for IMT spectrum demand estimation

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