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National Gazette No. 42829, 08 November 2019, Vol 653, Page 124
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124 of 280
Gazette
National Gazettes
, No
42829
, from 08 November, 2019
Department
ICASA
Notice
Page No. 60 of 209,
Notice No. 600,
Electronic Communications Act (36/2005), as amended » Notice regarding the Final International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) Roadmap 2019
Preview / 124 of 280
124 No. 42829 GOVERNMENT GAZETTE, 8 NOVEMBER 2019 6 FORECASTS FOR SOUTH AFRICA Forecasts of overall IMT demand In Report ITU-R M.2290-0 (12/2013) future spectrum requirements are estimated for terrestrial IMT. From this report it is clear that the growth in mobile traffic is expected to increase over the next few years. In order to reflect the increasing traffic demand, new, updated market attributes for the lower user density and higher user density settings are provided. In ‘Report ITU-R M.2078-0 (2006), Estimated spectrum bandwidth requirements for the future development of IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced’, the new traffic volumes for the spectrum requirement estimations in 2020 are derived by considering traffic growth ratios from the market studies presented in ‘Report ITU-R M.2243-0 (2011) Assessment of the global mobile broadband deployments and forecasts for International Mobile Telecommunications’. The report relies on several mobile traffic forecasts beyond 2010, provided by different organisations. Most of these forecasts consider mobile traffic in the years 2011-2015, while only one makes projections for the year 2020, anticipating a 33-fold traffic growth ratio in 2020 compared with 2010. It should be noted that the 2nd-order polynomial function estimates conservative traffic growth, while the 3rd and 4th-order polynomial functions provide more aggressive growth corresponding to approximately 40 to 170-fold and 80 to 240-fold growth ratios, respectively. The spectrum requirements are distributed and calculated for Radio Access Technology Group 1 (RATG 1) (i.e. pre-IMT, IMT-2000 and its enhancements) and RATG 2 (i.e. IMT-Advanced) for the year 2020. Service category Other Market-related parameters Radio-related parameters parameters parameters J-values for mapping of mobility Maximum Maximum Guardband Supported Traffic classes from market study to allowable allowable between mobility distribution ratio methodology blocking mean IP operators classes among available probability packet delay RATGs Mean service Minimum Application User density bit rate deployment data rate Population Mean IP Second per operator coverage packet size moment of per radio Area spectral percentage Mean session Session arrival IP packet environment efficiency duration rate per user size Support for Number of multicast Mobility ratio overlapping network deployments Cell size Figure 8: Input parameter overview for IMT spectrum demand estimation Page 60 of 205
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